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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.