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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."